Titanium is really small, as small as three times five divided by two can calculate costs and profits. Thing is precious when it's time to make a profit. That's the smiling face that the market brings to you. When you should lose, you only gain. That's the tears the market has shed on you. Who calls you overcapacity?

A few years ago, the sponge titanium market continued to decline, so low that titanium companies often beat their chests and shed tears. I remember there was also a transaction price of 38000 yuan/ton for first-class sponge titanium. Da Pan referred to that as the "black dragon" of the sponge titanium market, and thus concluded that the bottom of the sponge titanium market was protruding, and wrote about the "micro climbing" phenomenon of sponge titanium prices entering the future. Thinking that the titanium market was gradually improving towards the end of the 13th Five Year Plan and welcoming the arrival of the 14th Five Year Plan, in October 2018, China Ferroalloy Network invited me to give a market analysis report on the Zhanjiang Forum, titled "The Periodic Market Pattern of Sponge Titanium is Going Far", which is a comprehensive analysis of the promising future of Sponge Titanium. At that time, some downstream titanium companies claimed that Da Pan was the spokesperson for sponge titanium companies and should not praise sponge titanium. During that period, based on first-hand information from interviews with titanium companies in recent years, it was predicted that Da Pan believed that there was room for "competing for eight out of seven" in sponge titanium prices (competing for 80000 out of 70000). At that time, sponge titanium companies gave me a "positive" evaluation!

However, as time flies, from singing high to singing stable to singing stable with some ups and downs, some sponge titanium companies have shown a red face, showing a "big family style" that only likes to listen to "rise" but does not like to listen to "fall", and their attitude has become somewhat rigid. Especially a company that has believed for many years that I am fair in evaluating the market and quality has criticized my decision not to go up. Someone left a message to Da Pan: Some people are spokespersons for titanium companies and cannot bear the price increase of sponge titanium. I can only hahahahaha. Touching the interests of sponge titanium enterprises, I feel a bit uncomfortable in my heart!

Last October, I interviewed more than 10 state-owned and private titanium material enterprises in the areas of Baoji, Jiangsu, and Guangzhou. Based on comprehensive analysis, the sponge titanium market continued to be bullish and sponge titanium enterprises continued to see profits. I remember when interviewing Wang Wensheng, the chairman of Baosteel Titanium Group, he said that during the National Day holiday, Baosteel Titanium's production line was working overtime, and this situation had not occurred for several years. When confident Wang Wensheng said this, I firmly believe that the spring of sponge titanium enterprises has arrived. The price "slight climb" I analyzed a few years ago and the market improvement are also in line with expectations.

The continuous price increase of sponge titanium this year is a natural market demand phenomenon, but it presents a "chaotic" character. So, based on the market demand of titanium material companies interviewed by Da Pan, he analyzed that price increases should be stable. He did not expect one or two sponge titanium companies to change their image of me as "just" from previous years to saying that I am the spokesperson of titanium material companies, and he was extremely dissatisfied with my analysis. Fortunately, several sponge titanium companies believed that my reminder was somewhat reasonable.

Market analysis needs to respect market demand, which is an objective law. My analysis of the sponge titanium market is often based on interviews with multiple titanium material companies to make judgments. Taking two stock market examples, there is a person who likes to speculate in stocks. He went to several bars to drink beer and found that there were many people drinking Qingdao beer. Therefore, he was bullish on the Qingdao beer stock, and as expected, he bought the Qingdao beer stock and rose. A few years ago, a person wanted to buy a car and realized that there were many people buying a car at that time. So he converted the money from buying a car into buying car stocks, and as expected, after holding it for more than a year, the stock price turned into a car! Market analysis must be "stepped on" and "stepped on". What is going on? Going is about conducting on-site research, accumulating data, and conducting comprehensive analysis. What is stepping on? It is to analyze and make reasonable judgments.

Small group titanium lacks big mindedness! The market pricing habits of the titanium industry really need to be changed, Just want to hear Is it possible to hear the sound of "rising"? A sharp rise is high blood pressure! Looking at the titanium circle, you can feel that this circle is too small and respects the lack of rationality in the market. Laugh when you sing up, and make noise when you sing down. It's still two months away, and 2019 will come to an end. I have also communicated with friends from several sponge titanium companies, and the future market is still optimistic, but we also need to take it easy. We should view the thinking of rising and falling with a normal attitude: stable demand in the titanium market in the future is inevitable to see good demand Trends, but prices definitely have twists and turns and cannot be bullish all the way, because it is not only market demand that drives prices, but also the "self expansion" of production capacity and mentality. Because a good job covers a hundred ugly things, making money without introspection, and blind expansion does not match market demand?

To summarize:

Back then, the titanium industry was born for military products. Nowadays, the titanium industry is living for civilian products, and relying solely on military products cannot revitalize the titanium industry. Only the expansion of the civilian product field is the spring of the titanium industry. The strength of the country will steadily increase the demand for military titanium, while economic prosperity can support the takeoff of the titanium industry! So, singing up and down is determined by the market, not by complaining about "endorsements". Only by stepping out of the hearts of niche titanium companies can they understand the principles of market dialectics. In the future, a stable increase in military products is a need for a strong country, but military titanium is estimated to be only about 1/5, and civilian titanium is the booster for the rapid development of the titanium industry.

The titanium industry is born for military products! Live for the people!

The titanium industry is transitioning to other fields, which is the lifeblood of its development. Only with more ambitious cross-border efforts can small titanium emerge from the market and become a structured enterprise.